Europe
Slovenia - BB
Debt/GDP = 0,45 (45%)Accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years = 0,099
Years since last default = 21 (Independent since 1991)
5-year inflation = 0,14 (14%)
Budget expences/GDP = 0,46
Trade deficit/GDP = 0,04
World GDP per capita/Country GDP per capita = 0,33
Political factor = 0,2
Crisis factor = 0,4 (Involved in Afghanistan war)
Other unique factors = 1,5 (too leftish mood among voters - an important pension reform was rejected in referendum)
OVERALL CREDIT SCORE: 0,732 (73,2%). This responds to BB.
Calculated with this formula:
r = 10/{[1+(debt/GDP)] + [1+10*(accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years)] + [1 + (10/years since last default)] + [1+3*(accumulated of last 5 years inflation)] + [1+(budget expences/GDP)] + [1+ 10* (trade deficit/GDP)] + [world's GDP per capita/country's GDP per capita] + [1+political factor] + [1+crisis factor] + [Other unique factors]}
Romania - B
Debt/GDP = 0,38 (38%)Accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years = 0,18
Years since last default = 79 (1933)
5-year inflation = 0,29 (29%)
Budget expences/GDP = 0,36
Trade deficit/GDP = 0,043
World GDP per capita/Country GDP per capita = 1,01
Political factor = 0,2
Crisis factor = 0,4 (involved in current war - Afghanistan)
Other unique factors = 1,8 (general financial instability, uses the IMF help)
OVERALL CREDIT SCORE: 0,647 (64,7%). This responds to B.
Calculated with this (new) formula:
r = 10/{[1+(debt/GDP)] + [1+10*(accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years)] + [1 + (10/years since last default)] + [1+3*(accumulated of last 5 years inflation)] + [1+(budget expences/GDP)] + [1+ 10* (trade deficit/GDP)] + [world's GDP per capita/country's GDP per capita] + [1+political factor] + [1+crisis factor] + [Other unique factors]}
Portugal - B
Portugal is de facto a defaulted country as it uses bailout funds from EU and IMF and can not survive without them. This is due to entire losing of confidence of markets so nobody is eager to lend money to Portugal. The rating below is if the confidence was not lost.
Debt/GDP = 1,03 (103%)
Accumulated deficit for last 5
years/budget income for last 5 years = 0,137
No defaults in new history
5-year inflation =
0,09 (9%)
Budget expences/GDP = 0,49
Trade deficit/GDP = 0,083
World GDP per capita/Country GDP per capita =
0,38
Political factor = 0,2
Crisis factor = 0,4 (involved in current war -
Afghanistan)
Other unique factors = 2 (lost market confidence, uses bailout help from EU and IMF)
OVERALL CREDIT SCORE: 0,667 (66,7%). This responds to B.
Calculated with
this (new) formula:
r = 10/{[1+(debt/GDP)] + [1+10*(accumulated deficit
for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years)] + [1 + (10/years since last
default)] + [1+3*(accumulated of last 5 years inflation)] + [1+(budget
expences/GDP)] + [1+ 10* (trade deficit/GDP)] + [world's GDP per
capita/country's GDP per capita] + [1+political factor] + [1+crisis factor] +
[Other unique factors]}
Macedonia - CC
Debt/GDP = 0,28 (28%)Accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years = 0,037
Years since last default = 21 (Independent since 1991)
5-year inflation = 0,15 (15%)
Budget expences/GDP = 0,34
Trade deficit/GDP = 0,26
World GDP per capita/Country GDP per capita = 1,87
Political factor = 0,2
Crisis factor = 0,4 (Involved in Afghanistan war)
Other unique factors = 2 (Very unstable, problems with all neighbours, always at the edge of civil ethnic war)
OVERALL CREDIT SCORE: 0,588 (58,8%). This responds to CC.
Calculated with this(new) formula:
r = 10/{[1+(debt/GDP)] + [1+10*(accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years)] + [1 + (10/years since last default)] + [1+3*(accumulated of last 5 years inflation)] + [1+(budget expences/GDP)] + [1+ 10* (trade deficit/GDP)] + [world's GDP per capita/country's GDP per capita] + [1+political factor] + [1+crisis factor] + [Other unique factors]}
Luxembourg - AA
Debt/GDP = 0,20 (20%)Accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years = -0,022 (surplus)
Years since last default = 68 (occupied during WW2 - till 1944)
5-year inflation = 0,11 (11%)
Budget expences/GDP = 0,40
Trade deficit/GDP = 0,13
World GDP per capita/Country GDP per capita = 0,07
Political factor = 0
Crisis factor = 0
Other unique factors = 1
OVERALL CREDIT SCORE: 0,887 (88,7%). This responds to AA.
Calculated with this (new) formula:
r = 10/{[1+(debt/GDP)] + [1+10*(accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years)] + [1 + (10/years since last default)] + [1+3*(accumulated of last 5 years inflation)] + [1+(budget expences/GDP)] + [1+ 10* (trade deficit/GDP)] + [world's GDP per capita/country's GDP per capita] + [1+political factor] + [1+crisis factor] + [Other unique factors]}
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