S&P surprisingly decided to increase the credit rating of Greece by 6 steps at a time, bringing it to B- level. Can you imagine that evaluations of ridiculous analysts like S&P are fixed in laws of much countries as obligatory to have in mind from big investors when deciding where to put their money? Do you believe that is true? In fact it is true. S&P makes bullshits and investors have to believe it :)
Greece is in a tragic economic situation. The country has a long term trend in GDP decrease. Every consecutive year the GDP is 5-7% lower than the previous. And that is the official statistics. The reality is even more negative. The government deficit is at catastrophic levels of above 10% of GDP. And this again is the official statistics. The reality is much worse. In fact the Greece budget is not capable to pay even th`e internal expenses. The country is still alive in paying salaries and pensions, thanks to international creditors (mostly Germany, France and IMF). In exchange for this money the country is doing simulative reforms and only giving promises to cut spending. The overall debt of Greece is 170% of its GDP, even after enormous debt-cuts. And at the end, Greece is politically unstable, every day there is unrest on the streets and the government coalition is very fragile. And to all this S&P decided to make a gift of 6 steps of credit rating increase.
The real credit rating of Greece is D, as calculated with reliable and not politically dependent formula. Greece is not repaying its debt and has no any chance of reforming in near future its economy to make it productive. So it is funny to give investors a signal that Greece is going better.
But the problem is not with S&P ratings. In fact old credit rating agencies are irreversibly going out of business as no one believes them. The problem is with overall economic analytic structure, that is may be in too worse condition than we can imagine.
Even today one of the main stock exchange indexes is... S&P 500. Millions of fools are investing while believing everything with that index is OK and is honest. But is that the real truth?
At the moment there goes an investigation against major banks for manipulating LIBOR. The Swiss UBS is already fined with $1.5 billion. And the investigation is still continuing in bribery direction. The fate of the rest global bank leaders is to be known soon.
Rumors are appearing about EURIBOR manipulation in EU. The European Commission will soon impose its own fines.
Do you remember that one of the leading financial consultants Arthur Andersen was kicked out of business, after making a suspicious and positive audit of... Enron.
Don't you think the same I am thinking? Global finances has become a crime business, officially legalized by governments. Obviously the main purpose of this is to "squeeze" money from real economy to financial sector, where high salaries, bonuses and dividends to be paid. And political campaigns to be financed.
Even now billions and billions are going to "prestige" consultants that are everywhere - in investment projects, corporate deals, mergers... Big big big money is being paid for in fact nothing. You pay 5 million dollars and receive a folder with useless pieces of paper. This consultation gives you nothing, educates you nothing, helps you nothing. It is just a folder with the initials of a "great analyst" on it. And this analyst makes money until another "Enron" appears and collapses, together with its loyal consultant :)
I think this parasite financial structure is trying to save itself from the inevitable collapse that is happening today. It is not possible so big unproductive redistribution of resources and money to prolong endlessly. There is no one more to feed the parasites. Today we are seeing the bankrupt of this de facto criminal system. And this system is trying to save itself by issuing new lies. That is why in fact it is not so surprising to see a going up rating of Greece. It is your choice if you will believe... :)
Waiting for an increase of the rating of subprimes... An "excellent" investment... :)
Dobri
Dec 19th 2012