There are too much comments on Presidential election on November 6th. But it lacks one very important point of view - who is in charge in so called "toss up" states. I think this is the most important factor as in situation of very close results the electoral manipulations and falsifications can become decisive. It is a responsibility of the State administration to organize the elections. So the party that rules the state has an advantage of adding some percents to its result due to electoral fraud. Such type of advantage is not decisive if the margin is big. Usually the fraud potential is in one-digit percents and even 1-2%. But in toss up states the margin is very narrow and such an advantage can become decisive due to the "winner takes all" system.
So let's look at the toss ups...

The most discussed state - Ohio is led by a Republican Governor. So is Florida. I don't know why Virginia is not discussed. It has 13 electoral votes and is led by a Republican. The same is in also not widely discussed Wisconsin - 10 electoral votes and led by a Republican. Michigan is very close to a toss up state, and again - a Republican governor. It is 16 electoral votes. If Romney takes all these states he will have more than needed 270 electoral votes.

But he has also "electoral fraud" reserves in other toss up or near to toss up states. Republicans are ruling Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20) and Iowa (6). These are 32 more "reserve" electoral fraud delegates.

Obama is in much worse position. He has Democratic governors in Colorado (9), North Carolina (15) and New Hampshire (4). Taking all of them is not enough to get 270 in electoral college.

Talking about electoral fraud is not ethic and correct is the country that pretends to be the leading world democracy. But anyway fraud is a fact. It is not wise this fact to be easily ignored...

It is fact that in 2000 in Florida George Bush was helped by the fact that his brother was a Governor of the state. It is a proven fact that much black (mostly Democratic) voters were embarrassed in voting and even prevented from voting. So with the narrow victory of Bush with only 537 votes it is clear that this manipulation was decisive. I don't mean the recounting scandal and the intervention of the Supreme Court. I mean the lost and even not accepted votes that were much more that the 537 margin.

Electoral fraud is an illness of democracy and US democracy is not immunized against it. Votes are being stolen and sold, documents are being falsified, electoral commissions are being bribed, lobbyists are everywhere... Generally this is not decisive when the margin is wider, as it was expected to be wider with Obama running as an acting President. But with this close, very close battle, It is the chance of the Governors and bureaucrats to decide the election.

So I think these factors must also be calculated in prognoses... It is the real life... :))) The ideal and perfect democracy is just an illusion...

Dobri
November 3rd 2012