The polls are showing a stable lead for Obama ahead of Romney. Generally there is no high chance for the Republican to crush the incumbent President. But the more important fact is that at Congress battle there is a chance for Democrats to regain control. Helped by the presidential campaign much leftish candidates have a chance to win against republicans and Tea Party candidates. In fact the Tea Party obviously has lost some energy so it is absolutely possible after elections to have a balanced House and even a small Democratic majority. In Senate it is almost sure Democrats will lose some seats. Anyway it is possible the loss to be smaller than expected, so they can keep the control over the Senate.

At the end of the year important political decisions must be taken. The US deficit is catastrophic and the debt is going up in an uncontrollable process. The only hope for change is not only the almost impossible Romney's victory, but also a victory that will put in Congress much representatives and senators like Ron Paul and Paul Ryan. Even if Romney becomes a President, this will change nothing as his view on economy is very close to Obama's one. Romney is the Republican Obama so in fact the race is between Obama and Obama-2. It is not clear what will be the influence of Paul Ryan as vice-president. Probably - low one. So if USA is to make the needed spending cuts and tax reforms to balance the budget, for this will be needed a new dominated by Tea Party House, and a Republican Senate.

The probability all this to happen is very low. It is more probable to happen the opposite. America to turn left amid the crisis - just like it happened in France. This is what the results of polls predict. Therefore we are ahead of a new period of stupid an unconscionable decisions that will worsen the situation of the economy. It is expected the debt ceiling to be raised, without any logic arguments why and without a long term plan to reform the economy. It will be raised just because "money is needed now". The US government debt will continue to go up, financed mainly by newly printed dollars. The dollar will lose value and US bonds will be abandoned by most of foreign investors. The inflation will accelerate. The Gold will surpass $2000 per ounce before the end of the year if election results are like in poll predictions.

The problem with US politics is the lack of real and supported by society right leaders and ideas. Even Republicans do not offer real and decisive reforms. But the re-rise of Democrats makes the situation even more complex. USA is now at a crossroad and is not expected to make the right choice. Let's hope the polls are mistaken. Otherwise - buy land, property and gold. Inflation is merciless...

Dobri
August 22nd 2012