A left+fascist "secret" coalition is to win the parliamentary elections in France

Tomorrow are scheduled parliamentary elections in France, that are as important as the already passed presidential one. It is expected the winner to be the secret coalition between left parties and Front National of Marine Le Pen, sometimes called also a "fascist" party. The presence of this party draws votes from classical right and this allows candidates of the Left to win elections.

The electoral system in France is majoritarian in two rounds. The "winner takes all system" means the one who has most votes on second round becomes a deputy. But there is a detail more. To this second round go not only the two leading candidates, but everyone who has received more than 12,5%. I.e. second round could be between 3-4 candidates, and to win the one with for example 35% (not 51%).

Just under this scheme the help of the fascist party is very precious for the left because it will get a majority without actually being supported by the majority of Frenchmen. The job of  Front National candidates is just to lower the result of classical right candidates below their competitors form left.
Officially Marine Le Pen is against left and socialist parties. She is called an "extreme right" politician. But in fact she is much closer to the left, especially in economic ideas. And as political behavior she will definitely support the Socialists, by helping them to acquire majority in National Assembly.

This is a good cooperation between fascists and socialists and is not a new phenomenon. It dates back to Stalin and Hitler with their cooperation.

To what can lead a socialist-fascist coalition is not difficult to guess. Even if they don't become a war, they will certainly destroy the economy completely.

There is little chance a political wonder to happen and right parties to win. Frenchmen are some frightened by the already happened stupidity to elect a leftish President, amid a crisis that requires a fierce right reforms. That new President has already begun his absurd policy by moves like the partial lowering of the retirement age (the last that I remember have done such a move was Evo Morales in Bolivia). Frenchmen see what happens and may correct this tomorrow. There is a big right-vote potential among the record 25 percent of voters who hide who they will vote for. It is possible a right political bomb to tick there.

But generally this is a very limited probability. The chance is small. The Presidential vote showed that combined together socialists and fascists have significant advantage in voters support. So their not official coalition is to win.

Soon after that we will wait for the much more important decisions taken by financial markets...

June 9th 2012

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