Dobri's Prognoses - results up to May 20th 2012

The prognosis that Apple shares will go down to at least $550 is entirely fulfilled. It was no so difficult to predict this, as it is clear that a big share of the stock's price is artificial and is based not on real business value, but on dreams. So now we already have a $530 level and no guarantee for stop plunging.

I think these stocks will not go below $500 soon. It is possible a short breakthrough, but generally some time will be needed for lower levels. The reasons for this are 3. From one side there is an overall inflation pressure for all assets due to high levels of money print. From other side, Apple has $100 billion in cash and the company already demonstrated an aptitude to bribe the investors using this money. And from third side the company has some technological inheritance and business plans from Steve Jobs that will guarantee some successful moves in near future. That's why I don't expect prices below $500 to be very stable. I think in next year there will be no long surviving price below that border.

Even if this level is passed, a stable support will appear on any lower level (for instance $450). But generally Apple do has a resource to keep its shares expensive. And will have it at least for years.

May 20th 2012 19:11 p.m. GMT

Dobri's prognoses are not regular forecasts of markets, but forecasts at moments when Dobri believes the processes are predictable. Generally most of the time the markets are unpredictable. But sometimes there are factors that well analyzed can lead to a good prediction. So these are the Dobri's prognoses.

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