I think France will not have a new president. There will be just two weeks of temporary triumph of the Socialists. After that the fear of their madness will give the victory to the lesser evil. It may be even good for Sarkozy being second on first round, as this will help in mobilizing the voters, frightened by the utopist socialist ideas of Hollande. France has much strong-minded voters, for whom it is clear that a victory a candidate who calls for the printing of money and a 75% tax on "rich" is the way to the abyss. It is not a coincidence that in socialist as a whole France, until now was only one Socialist president - Francois Mitterrand. And even this - thanks  not to being a socialist, but to his extraordinary charisma and communication skills.

Hollande is a French mini-version of Hugo Chavez. The French understand that his promises are unrealizable and will not give the power to him.

But there is also some strong mathematical arguments in favor of Sarkozy. The National Front of Marine Le Pen would be absurd to vote for a candidate of left. Antipathy to Sarkozy is more personal rather than ideological. There is also another conservative candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan who has taken 1,8%. These are voters of not the far-right, but a of a classical right - close to Sarkozy. With those votes added to Sarkozy's, he actually would won the first round. So on May 6th everything will be decided by the votes of Le Pen. I think they will back Sarko, although with some "disgust"...

But this election is not the end. France does not have an imperial president system, such as U.S. and Russia. France is a semi-presidential republic. And in June come parliamentary elections. The previous government of Sarko was strong because he had also a majority in parliament. But now the situation is different. Sarkozy or Hollande - both of them will have no parliamentary majority. So the government will be unstable.

Generally evaluated, this election showed the serious lack of what is needed in France and Europe - a strong authentic right type of leader like De Gaulle, Reagan or Thatcher. Europe is in a very difficult situation after 50 years of socialism, debts, industries fled abroad and super bureaucracy. It needs something more than Nicolas Sarkozy, whose policy is not enough right and has much leftish elements. Without a real right leader, the management of crisis processes is simply impossible and Europe will collapse ...

Dobri
April 23rd 2012