Iran nuclear crisis is calming down, but don't wait the oil price to go down...


The Iran nuclear case marks an improvement with optimistic comments from both sides. After the weekend Istanbul meeting, a new round of negotiations is scheduled in 6 weeks - this time in Baghdad. All this means that there will be no war for at least next 2 months. Therefore, if Iran nuclear problems were the reason for rising oil price, so now the oil must go down.
In fact we will not see this. Of course, it is possible a small correction down in the price. Corrections happen repeatedly - with or without Iran-problems or Iran-decision of problems. Corrections are an element of the market game. But we will not see a deep and stable lowering of oil-price. Because it is not Iran the reason for skyrocketing prices. The real reason is flooding the financial markets with liquidity in attempt to lower the interest rates on government debts. This money is creating inflation and usually the energy and food resources are the most vulnerable to inflation.
In last few years not only the oil is going up. The food is also up. And Iran is not a major food supplier. Iran is even a food-importer. So it is not possible Iran nuclear activities to pump the food prices up. But it happens. Therefore the real reason for this is something different from a regional crisis in Middle East. If Iran was the reason for oil-price-rise, then only the oil would go up, and not the food. But they both are going up. And much other resources too (like gold). So obviously the situation is inflationary-backed and not military-crisis-backed. And as the inflationary factors are still active, therefore it is not logical to expect serious lowering of oil-prices. They will go up in mid and long term, and every small correction (inspired by Iran talks or by other factors) is not a fundamental change of the trend. In fact it is a good moment to buy..

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