Africa

 

Mozambique - D

Debt/GDP = 0,43 (43%)
Accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years = 0,467
Years since last default = 32 (1980)
5-year inflation = 0,40 (40%)
Budget expences/GDP = 0,32
Trade deficit/GDP = 0,10
World GDP per capita/Country GDP per capita = 15,35
Political factor = 0,3
Crisis factor = 0,1
Other unique factors = 2 (generally too unstable and risky)

OVERALL CREDIT SCORE: 0,296 (29,6%). This responds to D.

Calculated with this (new) formula:

r = 10/{[1+(debt/GDP)] + [1+10*(accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years)] + [1 + (10/years since last default)] + [1+3*(accumulated of last 5 years inflation)] + [1+(budget expences/GDP)] + [1+ 10* (trade deficit/GDP)] + [world's GDP per capita/country's GDP per capita] + [1+political factor] + [1+crisis factor] + [Other unique factors]}

Morocco - CCC

Debt/GDP = 0,65 (65%)
Accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years = 0,033
Years since last default = 12 (2000)
5-year inflation = 0,08 (8%)
Budget expences/GDP = 0,31
Trade deficit/GDP = 0,188
World GDP per capita/Country GDP per capita = 2,76
Political factor = 0,3
Crisis factor = 0,1
Other unique factors = 1,8 (instability and civil unrest in all arab countries in region)

OVERALL CREDIT SCORE: 0,616 (61,6%). This responds to CCC.

Calculated with this (new) formula:

r = 10/{[1+(debt/GDP)] + [1+10*(accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years)] + [1 + (10/years since last default)] + [1+3*(accumulated of last 5 years inflation)] + [1+(budget expences/GDP)] + [1+ 10* (trade deficit/GDP)] + [world's GDP per capita/country's GDP per capita] + [1+political factor] + [1+crisis factor] + [Other unique factors]}

Kenya - D

Debt/GDP = 0,48 (48%)
Accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years = 0,189
Years since last default = 12  (2000)
5-year inflation = 0,45 (45%)
Budget expences/GDP = 0,25
Trade deficit/GDP = 0,178
World GDP per capita/Country GDP per capita =  10
Political factor = 0,3
Crisis factor = 0,5 (on the edge of civil war)
Other unique factors = 2 (generally too unstable and risky)

OVERALL CREDIT SCORE: 0,362 (36,2%). This responds to D.

Calculated with this (new) formula:

r = 10/{[1+(debt/GDP)] + [1+10*(accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years)] + [1 + (10/years since last default)] + [1+3*(accumulated of last 5 years inflation)] + [1+(budget expences/GDP)] + [1+ 10* (trade deficit/GDP)] + [world's GDP per capita/country's GDP per capita] + [1+political factor] + [1+crisis factor] + [Other unique factors]}
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Ghana - D

Debt/GDP = 0,38 (38%)
Accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years = 0,55
Years since last default = 30 (1982)
5-year inflation = 0,60 (60%)
Budget expences/GDP = 0,24
Trade deficit/GDP = 0,023
World GDP per capita/Country GDP per capita = 5,5
Political factor = 0,3
Crisis factor = 0,3 (instability in neighbour Cote D'Ivoire)
Other unique factors = 1,9

OVERALL CREDIT SCORE: 0,408 (40,8%). This responds to D.

Calculated with this (new) formula:

r = 10/{[1+(debt/GDP)] + [1+10*(accumulated deficit for last 5 years/budget income for last 5 years)] + [1 + (10/years since last default)] + [1+3*(accumulated of last 5 years inflation)] + [1+(budget expences/GDP)] + [1+ 10* (trade deficit/GDP)] + [world's GDP per capita/country's GDP per capita] + [1+political factor] + [1+crisis factor] + [Other unique factors]}

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