Greece - now is D, in 2009 it had to be CCC


At current moment the credit rating of Greece is D, as the country has just realized a de facto default. Below is the rating, calculated with the data from 2009. It is a very interesting instance of the ability of the formula to predict future financial crashes... The calculation is based on official statistics that after that was proven as optimistically manipulated:

debt/GDB is 110%
deficit/revenue is about 15%
last default ended 1964 so it is 45 years since then - in formula - 0,22
accumulated inflation is 14%, in formula - 0,14
trade deficit/GDP = 0,13 (13%)
World GDP per capita/Country GDP per capita = 0,30
political factor is 0,2
crisis factor is 0,4 (participation in Afghanistan war + war at the borders -> Israel, Middle East, North Cyprus occupation by Turkey)
other uniqe factors - 1,5 (too much, almost socialist, bureaucracy)

OVERALL CREDIT SCORE: 0,646 (64,6%). This responds to CCC.

(At the same time the leading Credit Rating Agenicies eveluated Greece as A. The difference is enormous. "A" is a good investment grade and "CCC" is a highly speculative grade. So as we can see by following events, Greece was far away from a stable investment destination.

Therefore the formula can calculate a more reliable result even based on manipulated data. If we recalculate on real data the grade would be even lower.)

Powered by

Interesting sites: LevCoin mining pool