Articles

Dobri\'s Prognoses

 

Bitcoin to enter through the back-door

   An interesting trend is observed in the area of virtual currencies – the technology staying behind them is becoming more and more attractive for the regular banks. Along with the attempt of governments to repress the competitor of the fiat-money, goes a natural process of partial implementation of virtual currencies philosophy.

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QE at $45 billion looks as the last cut for this year

   Can we expect further cuts in FED’s QE program? I think NO. $45 billion per month is exactly what the government needs to finance the budget deficit. Up to now the most reliable factor for prognosing the QEs was the need of US federal government of money. So with planned $560 billion deficit, Obama needs exactly about $45 billion monthly. So my prognosis is we saw the last QE cut for this year and may be for a longer period of time.

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Market frenzy: Portugal more reliable than Russia

   It is interesting to see in one and the same day Russia failing to sell its 9-year government bonds, while Portugal marking an enormous demand and record low interest rates. Russia is a country with a debt of less than 10% of GDP with balanced budget in most of previous years. At the same time Portugal is defaulted country with constant deficits and a debt of 130% of GDP. It had to be bailouted very soon.

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QE size continues to match the size of budget deficit

Many comments can be heard on Fed’s QE3 policy, but there is one principle that obviously always is followed – the size of the QE is about the size of the federal budget deficit. It is a fact that due to sequester and to battle in Congress there was achieved a decrease in the negative result of government balance sheet. So – in answer now Fed lowers the QE.

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Gold correction deepens, increasing the chances to buy cheap

May be I am repeating myself, but I can't miss the chance to say: "Buy Gold". At $1609 it is a very profitable deal. Just look at Spain with its corruption scandal, and Italy with the incredible revival of Berlusconi and everything looks clear enough. There will be a major turbulence in EU very soon.

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